Insights about the Northern Irish Economy and Interest Rates
I interviewed Emma Murray, Conor Lambe and John Paul Coleman, CFA, MCSI this morning at an event hosted by Danske Bank UK at PwC UK in Belfast.
(After I give you a tour of this wonderful city), here is a summary of insights shared:
🔝Belfast is a top ranking city for work life balance, jobs, housing, transport, income distribution and safety.
📈 Food inflation is high while energy prices have stabilised. Falling inflation (from its peak at 11%) still means rising prices but just at a slower pace.
🫣The markets are pricing interest rates in the UK to go to 5.75% but watch the five year swap rate for a longer term average.
🏧 A more cashless environment leads to money moving faster, a more data and more understanding of “ability to repay debt”.
👩⚕️There is a lot of competition for the talent in Northern Ireland with some skills mismatches. There is a focus on #EDI, higher wages and multiple careers in one’s life.
📶 the NI economy has been more resilient than expected with 2.4% unemployment but it’s a challenging business environment
💷Sterling is at a 12 month high against the dollar and euro with an expectation for it to go higher. This is absorbing sone imported inflation.
🤝 Alternative and traditional methods of finance can work together as one can help the other. They’re often complimentary rather than in competition.
⚙️NI is driven to be resilient, has a tight feedback loop with its universities and offers dual access to UK and EU markets.
🙌 Consumer sentiment is weak but growing.
🔮 We have to become more comfortable with volatility and acknowledge we’re dealing with a different economy and financial market than before.
🤖 AI is in our supply chains now. We need to learn how to both prompt it and tailor it for our purposes.
Thank you to Clare Megarry, Robert McCullough and Simon Boyd for giving me the opportunity to work with you this morning.
