Danske Bank Economic Breakfast

What’s going on in the NI economy, real business environment and markets? 

Here is a summary of insights from the Danske Bank UK Business Breakfast this morning at Riddel Hall, hashtag

#Belfast, where the team kindly invited me to MC the event.

“Business surveys are holding up, unemployment remains low and payroll to employees is up by 1%. However, there are 310,000 economically inactive in NI and 50,000 would like to be in a job. Diesel inflation is at 34%, NEET is at 11.6% and there is a significant demographic shift”, Conor Lambe

“There are companies being sold that are translating into real wealth and businesses selling into data and AI infrastructure that are thriving. But there are SMEs really struggling with the cost of doing business and how much our use of towns have changed post-COVID. The Good Jobs Bill is the biggest legislative change in the labour market since the Good Friday Agreement and there are political tensions around it. We need to really think about how we design jobs in the future”, John Campbell

“Energy price increases have spilled over into more broad-based inflation. US interest rates were due to be cut and now they’re likely to be flat. Europe is set to raise rates now and the Bank of England has switched from a predicted cut in rates to an increase. Low interest rates aren’t coming back and FX volatility isn’t new. We need to watch out for developments in the private credit markets and debt more generally (including the BIFS).” John Paul Coleman, CFA, MCSI

I then spoke abut the role remote working and AI might be having on the “white collar recession” changing the dynamics of the k-shaped economy as well as the £7 trillion intergenerational wealth transfer underway in the UK (to only two out of three people). Further, I pointed out that “vibe coding” is what every business needs to check out now with cybersecurity close beside it.

Thank you sincerely to Clare Megarry, Nicola Faulkner, Kevin Heavern and Robert McCullough for the opportunity to work with you on this, and every, occasion.